When is AI taking over _my_ job? - Tel Aviv 2018

When is AI taking over my job SASHA ROSENBAUM

Who Am I? Sasha Rosenbaum

Definitions

Intelligence The ability to accomplish complex goals

Artificial Intelligence The ability of a machine to perform tasks commonly associated with human intelligence

Machine Learning Machine learning (ML) is the science of getting computers to act without being explicitly programmed

Ada Lovelace Objection (1943) Computers can only do what they are programmed to do

Stand up Touch your nose How exactly did you do that?

Superhuman AGI Superhuman artificial general intelligence is the ability of a machine to accomplish any goal as well or better than humans

Does Artificial Intelligence have to be that smart?

Occupation Clerks Cashiers Cooks Taxi drivers Bakers Waiters Accountants Paralegals Likelihood of computerization 86-99% 83-97% 81-94% 89% 89% 94% 94% 94%

Occupation (United States) Office and administrative support occupations Sales and related occupations Food preparation and serving related occupations Transportation and material moving occupations Management occupations Education, training, and library occupations Production occupations Healthcare practitioners and technical occupations Business and financial operations occupations Construction and extraction occupations Personal care and service occupations Installation, maintenance, and repair occupations Building and grounds cleaning and maintenance occupations Computer and mathematical occupations Number of Employees 23,081,200 15,747,800 13,206,100 10,274,200 9,533,100 9,426,500 9,356,900 8,751,500 8,066,800 6,812,500 6,419,700 5,905,400 5,654,100 4,419,000

But wait, I am a “knowledge” worker, surely it isn’t easy to replace me?

Infrastructure as code (Currently mostly automation, not AI)

Imagine a landscape of human competence, having lowlands with labels like arithmetic and rote memorization, foothills like theorem proving and chess playing, and high mountain peaks labeled locomotion, hand-eye coordination and social interaction. Advancing computer performance is like water slowly flooding the landscape. A half century ago it began to drown the lowlands, driving out human calculators and record clerks, but leaving most of us dry. Now the flood has reached the foothills, and our outposts there are contemplating retreat. We feel safe on our peaks, but, at the present rate, those too will be submerged within another half century. - Hans Moravec

Rate of progress

Rate of adoption

So, what do we do now?!?

Which jobs will linger? ❖Perception and manipulation ❖Creative intelligence ❖Social intelligence

Occupation Therapists Engineers Scientists Teachers Chefs Lawyers Event planners Software Developers Likelihood of computerization 0.3-34% 0.4-96% 0.4-67% 0.7-26% 1% 3% 4% 4-13%

Luddites English workers in 1811–16, who destroyed machinery, especially in cotton and woolen mills, that they believed was threatening their jobs.

Selfishly speaking, resisting progress is a bad idea

Pensions Problem $$$

If we don’t improve our technology, the question isn’t whether humanity will go extinct, but merely how - Max Tegmark

Opinions Superhuman AGI is not possible Superhuman AGI will be achieved within the next couple of decades We only need to worry about conscious machines

Goal ≠ Purpose

AI Ethics

Bias is a property of information

We must build AI responsibly

Build AI responsibly!

Thank You! @DivineOps

Further reading Tegmark, M. Life 3.0 - Being human in the age of artificial intelligence. Frey, C.B. & Osborn, M. A. The Future Of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs To Computerisation? Oxford University Kaplan, J. Humans need not apply. Kurzweil, R. The Singularity is near. When humans transcend biology. Bostrom, N. Superintelligence: paths, dangers, strategies.